IEA Wind Task 51: Forecasting for the weather driven energy system (Working period 2024 - 2027)

Objectives:

The project "Forecasting for the weather-driven energy system" aims to improve forecasting accuracy for weather-driven energy systems, thereby optimizing the integration of renewable energies. This is particularly important as the transformation of the energy system towards a high share of renewables is rapidly advancing, while climate-related weather extremes increasingly threaten the stability and reliability of the energy system. The project aims to minimize uncertainties in forecasts and enhance predictions on spatial and temporal scales. A key focus is on applying and further developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning methods to improve weather and energy system forecasts.

Content, Subtask Objectives:

The Austrian contribution to this international project is comprehensive and covers several key areas. The focus is the co-leadership of the subtask "Extreme Power System Events," where methods are developed to detect and forecast extreme weather events that can impact the energy system. These forecasts are intended to strengthen the resilience of the energy system. A special focus is on developing solutions for integrating forecast data into energy management, supported by workshops and interactive sessions with experts from research and industry. The application of Data Science and AI is essential for early detection of complex weather and energy patterns and for responding adequately. Additionally, Austria is actively involved in developing new methods for predicting sub-seasonal to seasonal weather events.

(Expected) Results:

Through intensive national and international collaboration, the project will provide new insights into defining and predicting extreme weather events for weather-driven energy systems. The gained insights will contribute to the improvement of existing forecasting models and support the development of internationally recognized standards and best practices. The results will be shared through scientific publications, practical guidelines, and by organizing workshops and stakeholder events. For Austria, this means that the knowledge base for predicting weather-related fluctuations in energy production or outages will be enhanced, and the application of innovative AI methods in the energy sector will be further strengthened. In the long-term run, this should increase supply security and improve the energy system's adaptability to increasing weather volatility.

Austria, China, Denmark (Operating Agent), Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Sweden, Spain, United Kingdom, United States

Project leader

Dr. Irene Schicker
GeoSphere Austria
E-Mail: irene.schicker@geosphere.at

Project partner