Long-term scenarios of the austrian electricity system
A reasonably secure, economic and ecological electricity supply is an important prerequisite for the development of the Austrian economy. The main objective of this project is therefore to evaluate how electricity can be provided optimally with least total costs for society.
In order to achieve this objective, the deployment of the electricity sector will be analysed in three scenarios including different environmental targets and technology options. The scenarios show which of the analysed alternative technologies respectively corresponding mixes are feasible under certain economic and technological developments.
The conducted analysis is based on a simulation model, which reproduces myopic investment decisions. The methodical approach consists of a stepwise minimisation of the total costs arising form the provision of electricity.
The deployment of the electricity system depends on the scenario-specific realisation of the exogenous parameters. The portfolio of "new" renewables (RES-E) considerably varies between the scenarios for 2050. In some scenarios grid-connected photovoltaic systems (PV) show a significant deployment. In these scenarios PV constitutes the second most important source of RES-E following hydro power. To achieve this, a high electricity price level as well as an appropriate support is necessary. Wind power shows a low range in all scenarios and therefore proves its robustness. In fact, generation from wind power is close to the maximum potential over the whole period. Contrary, the range of power production from bioenergy is significant until 2050.
The carried out analyses emphasise the prominent role of energy efficiency in order to reach environmental and climate targets. In a scenario with increased energy efficiency and ambitious RES-E support policies the electricity demand can be met from 2040-2045 on without CO2-emissions. However, the share of RES-E sensitively reacts on changes in the implemented support schemes, whereas a decarbonisation of the electricity sector is a prerequisite in order to achieve long term climate change targets. The analysis shows, that within the modelled CO2-price range, these price signals alone do not cause this decarbonisation. This stresses the crucial role of energy and regulatory policy to reach long-term goals.
The deployment of wind power should be of first priority on a short to medium term basis. The necessary support level is low for all scenarios. In the medium term, a shift of the support focus towards PV is necessary to reach a significant long term contribution of renewables in the electricity sector. For the support of bioenergy the running costs of the primary energy input should be considered.
Dr. Reinhard Haas, TU-Wien, Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft (EEG)
- TU-Wien, Institut für Elektrische Anlagen und Energiewirtschaft (EEG)
Dipl.-Ing. Christian Redl
Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Müller
- Institut für Energiesysteme, TU Berlin
Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann
Dipl.-Ing. Niels Ehlers
- Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt und Energie
Dr. Claus Barthel
Project or cooperation partner
- EGL Austria GmbH
Dr. Claus Huber
Dr. Thomas Faber